![]() ![]() He is also Pennsylvania State Climatologist.The 1793 (Old) Farmer’s Almanac, published in 1792.Īn almanac, by definition, records and predicts astronomical events (the rising and setting of the Sun, for instance), tides, weather, and other phenomena with respect to time. Paul Knight, M.S., CCM, is an instructor of meteorology in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences and is co-host and producer of Weather World. So feel free to read the Farmers' Almanac, and watch the Weather Channel, too, but you might also want to carry an umbrella with you. "If you want to use that for some kind of planting purpose or guidance more power to you," says Knight. While Knight feels that there's nothing wrong with reading the Farmers' Almanac (and with 4 million copies sold each year, it has its loyal readers), just don't expect it to be very accurate, he warns. There is some relative frequency to these things, but to say that this is of great scientific accuracy would be a real misnomer." I'm going to be right seven out of 10 years. "I could say February 12 to 19: heavy snow along parts of the eastern seaboard. And I would be right probably eight out of 10 years," says Knight. "I could say things like October 8 to 15 in this area: generally dry, very cool weather expected first frost and freezes in the valleys. But awareness of the past record, Knight points out, requires little to no scientific skill. Perhaps the strongest long-term predictor when it comes to weather is climate history, the way the weather "normally" behaves in a given region. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either." If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. "They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. Knight points out that the Farmers' Almanac words its predictions imprecisely, making it difficult to assess their accuracy. One is scientific the other is behind the curtain." "If we get it right every once in a while people say, 'Well, if they can do that, then why can't the Farmers' Almanac be right?' Well, because they're using very different techniques. "For precipitation, I don't know anyone short of the prophet Elijah who has any skill in foretelling precipitation more than a couple weeks, perhaps a month in advance," he says. Says Knight, even with the advanced technology, it is still difficult for meteorologists to forecast things like rainfall very far in advance. Today, radar, satellites, and computer simulations help meteorologists more accurately predict everything from an afternoon rain shower to a tropical cyclone. Until the modern era of meteorology, many people relied on publications like the Farmers' Almanac for long-range weather forecasts. "You don't have to show us everything in case you want to make a business out of it, but give us some idea." ![]() "If you have something that's really innovative and shows skill, then bring it before your peers," he says. climate zones.Īccording to Knight, the Almanac's secrecy is part of the problem. The Farmers' Almanac's Web site explains that its forecaster (referred to only by his pseudonym, Caleb Weatherbee) uses a "top secret mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and many other factors" to predict weather sixteen months in advance for seven different U.S. ![]() "There's no proven skill, there's no technique that's agreed upon in science to be able to do that." "The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero," says Knight. Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight is more than a little skeptical. Can you really predict the weather a year from now? Yet since 1818, the Farmers' Almanac-published annually from its Lewiston, Maine offices-has been trying to do just that for the continental United States. ![]() This is especially true of long-term forecasting. As anyone who's been caught in a downpour without an umbrella knows, predicting the weather is no simple task. ![]()
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